MGI Weekly round-up | 21 July 2017

Stories MGI has been tracking this week:

  • New wave of public sector dismissals in Turkey
  • Macron calls for local governments cuts
  • Greek property market still unattractive for foreign investors
  • EU restricts sales of inflatable boats to Libya 

And as always, we feature content from the MGI data and analysis platform, a summary of the week’s key statistical releases, and a look to the week ahead in data. This week we take an in-­­depth look at the unemployment rate data for Turkey.

New wave of dismissals in Turkey
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of Turkey’s failed putsch of July 15, 2016, about 7,400 people employed in the public sector were removed from their jobs. Over the last year, more than 100,000 people working in the public sector have been dismissed or suspended from their jobs. Many more have been jailed.
 
Since last year’s coup attempt, Turkey has been in an on-going state of emergency, allowing the government to rule by decree. In a decree published last Friday, 7,395 public servants were fired, including 2,303 police officers, 1,486 interior ministry staff, 546 navy and air force personnel, 418 justice ministry officials, 789 staff from the health ministry, 551 from religious affairs, 302 academics and 102 education ministry employees. Following the decree, the Turkish government once again extended emergency rule for an additional three months. 

Macron calls for local government cuts
France’s President Emmanuel Macron stated on Monday that the government would ask local authorities to cut their spending by €13 billion in an attempt to reduce the country’s budget deficit.
 
The sum came as a surprise to many, as Macron campaigned on cuts of €10 billion. The budget was last balanced in 1974. France has repeatedly run afoul of the EU’s rules governing budget deficits. Macron declared during his campaign that in order to regain credibility in Europe he would meet his country’s EU commitments.
 
The president’s statement comes after the last week announcement of €64.5 billion cuts over a five-year period to meet the budget deficit threshold of 3% of GDP. In May, the European Commission warned that the target of a budget deficit below 3.0% will not be achieved this year and that it will stand at 3.2% in 2018 if there are no policy changes.
 
Greek property market still unattractive for foreign investors
The Greek property market remains unattractive for foreign investors, according to a new survey. Investors cite high rental taxes and high transaction costs, as reasons to avoid the market.
 
On a list drafted by the Global Property Guide, an international provider of information for property investors, Greece was placed on the bottom (32nd place) of a list comprising 36 countries, Ekathimerini reports.  Greece was cited to have one of the highest rental taxes from a list of 42 countries. The high ownership tax (ENFIA) and Greece’s country risk also played a role in deterring investment. The report concluded that despite a major decline (as much as 45%) in home prices in Attica since the end of 2018, prices are still high in relation to the income that they can yield.
 
Nevertheless, opportunities for high returns still exist in apartments in Athens’s historical center and luxury homes in the countryside, especially those located near popular tourism destinations.

EU restricts sales of inflatable boats to Libya
On Monday, the EU agreed to allow its member states to restrict exports of inflatable boats and outboard motors to Libya if “there are reasonable grounds to believe that they will be used by people smugglers and human traffickers.” According to the International Organization for Migration, 84% of all refugees and immigrants that have crossed the Mediterranean this year arrived in Italy from Libya by boat. The EU also agreed to extend a border aid mission in Libya through the end of 2018.

Featured content from the MGI.online data and analysis portal
Turkey’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) can be retrieved using the MGI platform (https://www.mgi.online/natstats-key-indicators/) by filtering by ‘Turkey’ and ‘Unemployment Rate’. In the visualization below, you can see an increase in the unemployment rate from March 2016 (9.9%) to December 2016 (11.9%) and a constant decline throughout 2017 until April (11.3%). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Turkey averaged 10% from 2005 until 2017, reaching a maximum of 13.9% in April 2009 and a minimum value of 8% in June 2012. Seasonally adjusted data should be used when comparing sequential months.  

The week in data
Highlights from national statistics releases tracked by MGI this week include:

  • Turkey sheds 463 thousand jobs in April, with unemployment rising 1.2 percentage points to 10.5% bit.ly/2v968uv
  • Inflation in Croatia for June 2017 stood at 0.7%, down from 1.1% in May hbit.ly/1ncvT7g
  • Albania's trade deficit in June 2017 was 34 billion lekë, up 15.1% compared to June 2016 bit.ly/2vtWdz2
  • In May 2017, employment in Slovenia reached 846,800 persons- an increase of 3.6% compared to May 2016 bit.ly/2uuXWYf
  • Israel's IPI in May decreased 1% versus April, based on trend data and 3.6% based on seasonally adjusted data bit.ly/2ti5gSY

Looking ahead
It’s a week full of big-ticket data releases for France, and market movers will be watching Friday’s releases for Spain, Croatia, and Cyprus with keen interest. MGI’s complete data release schedule can be viewed at https://www.mgi.online/release-calendar/.
 
Monday 24 July, 2017:

  • France composite PMI, Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI for July, flash estimate
  • France 3-Month, 6-Month, 12-Month BTF Auction
  • France business confidence for July

Tuesday 25 July, 2017:

  • France business confidence for July
  • France unemployment benefit claims, total jobseekers and PPI for June
  • Italy industrial sales and industrial orders for May
  • Turkey business confidence and capacity utilization for July
  • Montenegro IPI for June

Wednesday 26, 2017:

  • France consumer confidence for July
  • Italy business and consumer confidence for July

Thursday 27, 2017:

  • Spain unemployment rate and employment for 2017Q2
  • Italy 6-month BOT auction  
  • Israel unemployment rate and employment for June
  • Turkey central bank interest rate and overnight lending rate decision

Friday 28, 2017:

  • France real GDP for 2017Q2, first estimate
  • France inflation rate for July, preliminary estimate
  • Spain real GDP for 2017Q2, preliminary estimate
  • Spain harmonized and domestic inflation for July, preliminary estimate
  • Spain business confidence for July
  • Turkey economic confidence index for July and tourists’ arrivals YoY for June
  • Italy 5-year and 10-year BTP auction
  • Croatia IPI for June
  • Cyprus IPI for May
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