MGI Weekly round-up | 8 September 2017

Stories MGI has been tracking this week:

  • Turkey’s growth forecasts revised up
  • France’s plans to support entrepreneurship
  • New investment in Morocco’s automotive industry

And as always, we feature content from the MGI data and analysis platform, a summary of the week’s key statistical releases, and a look to the week ahead in data. In this newsletter, we use the TRADE section of the MGI platform to examine Morocco’s most important export commodities.

Turkey’s growth forecasts revised up
For the sixth month in a row, economists have revised up their GDP growth projections for Turkey. According to a new Bloomberg survey, Turkey’s economy is expected to grow more than previously thought this year due to significant government and consumer spending. More specifically, YoY GDP growth is expected to stand at 4.1% in 2017 (a 0.2% increase compared to the previous survey). In the first quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 5% following economic stimulus measures.
 
GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019. In addition, according to the survey, there is a 10% chance of a recession during the next twelve months.

France’s plans to support entrepreneurship
On Tuesday, the French Prime Minister unveiled the government’s intentions to take measures to support self-employed workers and entrepreneurs, Bloomberg reports. The PM declared that the government intends to revise the rules for self-employed and have the new regime in force by December next year. The government’s plans include: (i) reducing the gap in unemployment benefits and maternity leave entitlement between salaried workers and the self-employed; (ii) lowering and simplifying payroll taxes for small companies; (iii) doubling the sales threshold below which ‘micro-entrepreneurs’ can qualify for special tax-breaks.
 
Labour market reforms remain a priority for a French government trying to tackle the country’s high unemployment rate — persistently around 9% for most of the last three decades.

New investment in Morocco’s automotive industry
Ficosa, a Spain-based car parts maker, intends to set up a plant in Morocco specialising in the production of in-vehicle cameras. The company intends to invest $50 million in two new plants in Morocco and Malaysia. The Moroccan factory will be equipped with the newest technologies for producing in-vehicle cameras, it is expected to be ready in five years, creating 800 new jobs.
The Moroccan automotive industry has attracted major car manufacturers ­– such as Renault and Peugeot – as well as car parts producers, becoming one of the country’s leading export sectors in the process.

Featured content from the MGI.online data and analysis portal
By using the TRADE section of the MGI platform (https://www.mgi.online/trade-list/) you can retrieve data for Morocco’s exports. Select “Morocco” in the country field, “Export” as Trade Flow and “All” as Trade Partner. You will get the graph below which displays the total value (in US$) of exports for different commodities. As we can see, the value of vehicle exports is high, surpassed only by the export value of electrical machinery and equipment.

Screen Shot 2017-09-08 at 12.19.13.png

The week in data
Highlights from national statistics releases tracked by MGI this week include: 

Looking ahead
Next week we will see data for balance of trade, inflation rate and employment/ unemployment for several Mediterranean countries. MGI’s complete data release schedule can be viewed at https://www.mgi.online/release-calendar/.
 
Monday 11 September, 2017:

  • Egypt inflation rate for August
  • Italy IPI for July
  • Turkey real GDP for 2017Q2 and treasury cash balance for August
  • Cyprus balance of trade for July
  • Malta balance of trade for July
  • Israel consumer confidence and money supply (M1) for August
  • Tunisia balance of trade for August and PPI for July
  • France 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF auction

Tuesday 12 September, 2017:

  • Albania unemployment rate and employment for 2017Q2
  • France payroll employment for 2017Q2
  • Italy unemployment rate for 2017Q2
  • Italy 12-month BOT auction
  • Montenegro inflation rate for August
  • Turkey retail sales for July
  • Spain 6-month and 12-month Letras auction

Wednesday 13 September, 2017:

  • Spain harmonized and domestic inflation for August, final estimate
  • Italy 3-year, 7-year and 30-year BTP auction
  • Israel balance of trade for August

Thursday 14 September, 2017:

  • Albania IPI for 2017Q2
  • France harmonized and domestic inflation for August, final estimate
  • Greece unemployment rate for 2017Q2
  • Italy harmonized and domestic inflation for August, final estimate
  • Morocco IPI for 2017Q2
  • Palestinian Territories inflation rate for August
  • Tunisia IPI for July
  • Turkey central bank interest rate decision
  • Israel current account for 2017Q2

Friday 15 September, 2017:

  • Croatia inflation rate for August
  • Israel inflation rate and manufacturing PMI for August
  • Slovenia IPI for July
  • Turkey unemployment rate, employment and current account for June
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