MGI Weekly round-up | 23 March 2018

Stories MGI has been tracking this week:

  • Italy’s trade deficit declines on an annual basis in January
  • The consumer confidence index in Turkey decreases by 1.3% in March
  • Arrivals of cruise passengers in Montenegro increase in 2017

And as always, we feature content from the MGI data and analysis platform, a summary of the week’s key statistical releases, and a look to the week ahead in data. This week, we use the MGI platform (WB section) to look at the evolution of Italy’s external balance on goods and services (% of GDP) for the period 1990-2016.
 

Italy’s trade deficit declines on an annual basis in January 

According to data released by Istat on Monday, Italy’s trade deficit stood at €87 million in January 2018 –  €488 million lower than in January 2017. The trade balance with EU countries amounted to €439 million (compared to €315 million in January 2017), while the trade balance with non-EU countries was negative and amounted to -€526 million (compared to -€890 million in January 2017), RTTNews reports.
 
Total exports and imports increased by 9.5% and 7.8%, respectively, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year.
 

The consumer confidence index in Turkey decreases by 1.3% in March

According to figures released by the Turkish Statistical Institute on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index decreased by 1.3% (to 71.3) in March 2018 compared to February 2018, RTTNews reports. In addition, the financial situation expectation of the household sub-index dropped by 0.7% (to 90.6), the general economic situation expectation sub-index declined by 1.7% (to 95.1), the number of people unemployed expectation sub-index fell by 2.4% (to 73.5%), while the probability of saving sub-index increased by 1.2 (to 26).
 
The consumer confidence index is based on the monthly consumer tendency survey and is evaluated within the range of 0-200. A value above 100 is indicative of an optimistic outlook, while a value below 100 points to a pessimistic outlook. The next consumer confidence figures will be released on April 20th.
 

Arrivals of cruise passengers in Montenegro increase in 2017

According to preliminary data released by MONSTAT this week, the number of cruise passengers who visited Montenegro increased by 1.5% (to 540,445) while the number of cruises of foreign ships decreased by 10.4% (to 430) in 2017 compared to 2016. The largest number of cruises of foreign vessels was recorded in September, followed by August and July, SeeNews reports. Most vessels arriving in the country were under the Bahamas flag (29.3% of total cruises), followed by ships under the flags of Malta (28.1%), Panama (8.1%), Belgium (6.7%) and Bermuda (6.3%).
 

Featured content from the MGI data and analysis portal

In this newsletter, we use the WB section of the MGI platform to look at the evolution of Italy’s external balance on goods and services as % of GDP. The external balance on goods and services is the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The period under examination is 1990-2016.
 
As shown in the graph, the indicator was positive from 1990 to 2004 (the average for this period was 1.8%), negative over the next seven years (-0.9% on average) and positive in the period 2012-2016 (2.5% on average). The indicator reached a peak of 4.5% in 1996 and a minimum value of around -2% in 2010. In 2016, the external balance on goods and services was positive and accounted for about 3.4% of the country’s GDP.

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The week in data

Highlights from national statistics releases tracked by MGI this week include:

 

  • Italy's IPI in January 2018 decreased 1.9% compared to December 2017 (seasonally adjusted data) and increased 4% vs January 2017 (calendar adjusted data)
  • Montenegro's employment decreased 7.4% in 2017Q4 vs 2017Q3. Unemployment rate stood at 17%
  • Slovenia's IPI in January 2018 increased 12.7% YoY but decreased 1.2% MoM

 

Looking ahead

Next week, we expect data on employment / unemployment, industrial production, inflation and real GDP for several Mediterranean countries. MGI’s complete data release schedule can be viewed at our release calendar section.
 
Monday 26 March, 2018:

  • France real GDP for 2017Q4, detailed figures
  • France 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF auction
  • Spain industrial orders for January
  • Malta unemployment rate and employment for 2017Q4
  • Montenegro IPI for January, final data
  • Montenegro IPI for February, preliminary data
  • Slovenia IPI for January, detailed data

Tuesday 27 March, 2018:

  • France registered unemployed for February
  • Spain business confidence for March
  • Spain domestic and harmonized inflation for March, preliminary estimates
  • Turkey economic confidence index for March
  • Italy business and consumer confidence for March
  • Italy 6-month BOT auction

Wednesday 28 March, 2018:

  • France consumer confidence for March
  • Spain retail sales for February and current account for January
  • Italy industrial orders and industrial sales for January
  • Italy 5-year and 10-year BTP auction

Thursday 29 March, 2018:

  • Turkey real GDP for 2017Q4
  • Italy PPI for February
  • Israel unemployment rate and employment for February
  • Egypt central bank interest rate decision
  • Cyprus IPI for January

Friday 30 March, 2018:

  • France domestic and harmonized inflation for March, preliminary estimates
  • France household consumption expenditure and PPI for February
  • Turkey balance of trade and tourist arrivals for February
  • Italy domestic and harmonized inflation for March, preliminary estimates
  • Egypt money supply (M2) for February
  • Croatia IPI for February
  • Montenegro unemployment rate and employment (register data) for February
  • Slovenia inflation rate for March
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